Nate Silver: Franken Will Win By 27 Votes

By Kevin Featherly ~ November 23rd, 2008 @ 6:34 pm 2 Comments »

As mentioned earler baseball-stat nerd Nate Silver, who has become the nation’s most accurate election prognosticator. Two weeks ago he blogged an intriguing numerical breakdown of Al Franken’s odds of beating Norm Coleman in Minnesota’s ongoing U.S. Senate recount.

That column waffled a bit, but built a compelling case that Frank had nearly even odds of taking the prize.

No such equivocation today. On Silver’s 538.com site, Silver makes his case explicit. The headline reads, “Projection: Franken to Win Recount by 27 Votes.”

Silver gets there through means of what to this math dummy is a pretty dense regression analysis that I will not attempt to explain. Read the column yourself. He shows his work.

Silver acknowledges that the error bars on his analysis are relatively high, so the projection should be read only to suggest that Franken is the favorite in the recount by the slimmest of margins. Silver adds:

“Nevertheless, there is good reason to believe that the high rate of ballot challenges is in fact hurting Franken disproportionately, and that once such challenges are resolved, Franken stands to gain ground, perhaps enough to let him overtake Coleman.”

Despite Silver’s guarded optimism for a Franken victory, the Coleman margin has grown slightly over the last few days, from +167 Saturday to +180 tonight, according to a Star Tribune news graphic posted at 8:04 p.m. The recount is now 68 percent complete.

It gets interestinger and interestinger….

Mitch Mitchell Dies

By Kevin Featherly ~ November 13th, 2008 @ 4:10 pm No Comments »

Mitch Mitchell, the fabulous drummer with the Jimi Hendrix experience, has reportedly died at age 61.

Not much to say, beyond “bummer,” about the death of the only musician to remain at Hendrix’s side throughout the duration of the superstar guitarist’s career. But it strikes me that his passing marks the first time that a major ’60s supergroup has lost all of its members.

The Experience is dead. Long live the Experience.

Nate Silver: Franken’s Recount Odds at 44%

By Kevin Featherly ~ November 10th, 2008 @ 9:57 pm 2 Comments »

Nate Silver, the baseball-stat nerd who has become the nation’s most accurate election prognosticator, has an intriguing numerical breakdown of Al Franken’s odds of overcoming his tiny deficit in the disputed U.S. Senate race against Norm Coleman.

You need to read pretty deep into the column to get what Silver is driving at, and you’re going to have to be patient with all the numbers and matrices–not to mention his somewhat waffling conclusion.

But bear with him, and you’ll see that Silver makes a pretty compelling case to suggest that Franken has nearly even odds of overcoming Coleman’s slim lead when the recount ends.

Worth noting: Silver’s numbers are based on slightly old data. At the point Silver put his report together, Coleman led Franken by 226 votes. That margin has since been reduced to 206 votes. That would suggest a slight corresponding improvement in Franken’s odds.

Of course, the lawyers are all over this one. There is little chance this will be resolved without going to court, regardless of the final recount tally.

Get ready, folks. Minnesota is about to stage its own highly provincial version of Bush v. Gore.

Electoral College Count: N.C. Goes for Obama

By Kevin Featherly ~ November 6th, 2008 @ 6:30 pm 5 Comments »

Several news organizations are now calling North Carolina for Obama.

That leaves 12 electoral votes yet to be counted, 11 from Missouri and one from a single congressional district in Nebraska, a state where electoral votes are apportioned district by district.

(An aside: That district-by-district apportionment system is one I favor nationwide as eminently more fair than the current winner-take-all electoral college, despite arguments by my liberal friends who worry that such a system would take California out of the auto-Dem column. Wouldn’t bother me. Fair is fair.)

It appeared to me when I last looked that the votes remaining to be counted in Missouri were from a Republican county, so I’d assume the Show-Me State will ultimately be awarded to McCain. I won’t hazard a guess about what’s going on in Nebraska. Continued >>

Further Reading

Nate Silver: Franken Will Win By 27 Votes

Mitch Mitchell Dies

Nate Silver: Franken’s Recount Odds at 44%

Electoral College Count: N.C. Goes for Obama

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