Nate Silver: Franken’s Recount Odds at 44%
Nate Silver, the baseball-stat nerd who has become the nation’s most accurate election prognosticator, has an intriguing numerical breakdown of Al Franken’s odds of overcoming his tiny deficit in the disputed U.S. Senate race against Norm Coleman.
You need to read pretty deep into the column to get what Silver is driving at, and you’re going to have to be patient with all the numbers and matrices–not to mention his somewhat waffling conclusion.
But bear with him, and you’ll see that Silver makes a pretty compelling case to suggest that Franken has nearly even odds of overcoming Coleman’s slim lead when the recount ends.
Worth noting: Silver’s numbers are based on slightly old data. At the point Silver put his report together, Coleman led Franken by 226 votes. That margin has since been reduced to 206 votes. That would suggest a slight corresponding improvement in Franken’s odds.
Of course, the lawyers are all over this one. There is little chance this will be resolved without going to court, regardless of the final recount tally.
Get ready, folks. Minnesota is about to stage its own highly provincial version of Bush v. Gore.
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About the Author: Kevin Featherly is a former managing editor with Washington Post Newsweek Interactive and a founding editor at Channel 4000, the news Web site of WCCO-TV in Minneapolis, Featherly has published thousands of news stories, features and commentaries that emphasize technology, public policy and the law. In 2000, he was media coordinator for Web, White and Blue--the world's first online presidential debates. He now owns and operates Featherly Consulting, L.L.C. in Bloomington, Minn.
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